ENERGY TRANSITION IS BECOMING CHAOTIC[cite: 7]

As renewable penetration increases in the grid, the need for Route-to-market evaluation becomes critical for utilities, C&I players, and IPPS.[cite: 15]

• The FID decision with long-term view needs to be integrated with the portfolio optimization in the short-term plan.[cite: 16]
• The decision making is becoming more complex, with variables and multiple scenarios on both demand and supply side.[cite: 17]

Forecasting of key variables and overall market modelling is becoming a must have capability.[cite: 20]

• Need for a hybrid of deterministic and stochastic analysis, with specific ability to accurately forecast outlier events.[cite: 22]
• Requirement for an embedded capability for algorithm-based decision making, for both buyers and sellers of electricity.[cite: 23]

Developers/IPPs and Utilities need to enhance portfolio capabilities, to support decision making across Long-term, medium-term and short-term horizons.[cite: 24]

• Pricing and managing complex portfolios like FDRE, merchant exposure, VPPA contracts, all with exposure to multiple technologies.[cite: 25]
• Creating portfolio hedges on a continuous basis with increasing shape, volume and imbalance risks in the portfolio.[cite: 27]

All new investments are now exposed to market and system volatility. No stakeholder in the value chain is immune to these risks.[cite: 30]

• All portfolios, both existing and under planning, need continuous monitoring for Value-at-risk.[cite: 31]
• Ensure that all new investment or procurement decisions are based on rigorous data analysis and considering all sensitivities.[cite: 32]